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- Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014
- MTECHTIPS: MCX JOBBING PACK Dec 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
- MTECHTIPS: MCX SUPERGAIN Jan 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
- MTECHTIPS: MCX PACK Jan 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
- MTECHTIPS: BTST-STBT PACK Jan 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
- MTECHTIPS: FUTURE OPTION PACK Jan 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
- MTECHTIPS: INDEX HULCHAL PACK Jan 2nd WEEK PERFORMANCE
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| Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:24 AM PST Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in India’s industrial production data, wholesale price index-based inflation, Oct-Dec earnings of companies, and overseas markets will set the tone for local stock indices next week. Industrial production growth data for November will be released by the Central Statistics Office later yesterday and WPI inflation rate for December will be released by commerce ministry on Tuesday. India’s industrial production is likely to have expanded 0.9% in November primarily due to a low base effect and improved manufacturing activities. Coal India, YES Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, ITC, Reliance Industries, and Wipro are among the major Nifty companies reporting earnings next week. Overall, we expect indices to trade in a narrow band, but the bias is seen negative after correction witnessed this week. After multiple attempts of making a new high, the markets failed to sustain at higher levels. The pattern formed over the last three months is of a rising wedge which is a negative reversal pattern. The break of the rising trend line support near 6200 level (on Nifty) has confirmed the breakdown of this pattern. Minimum targets to the downside for this move lie at the 5970 mark, below which we can see this fall extend to levels of 5700 as well. Yesterday, National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 6171.45, up 3.10 points from Thursday. The S&P BSE’s Sensex closed at 20758.49, up 45.12 points or 0.2%. MCX Stock Exchange’s SX40 ended at 12423.34, up 56.51 points or 0.5%. Information technology stocks may trade positive next week, but could witness bouts of profit booking after the recent rally. Banking stocks may see some selling pressure, while trade in telecom stocks is likely to be rangebound. However, we see scope for further gains in Bharti Airtel.  |
| Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:10 AM PST Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Bank stocks are largely seen trading in a narrow range as most market traders and investors would await the release of economic data, earnings of private banks, and update on dividend announcement by public sector banks. Major private sector banks including YES Bank, Axis Bank, and HDFC Bank will detail their Oct-Dec earnings on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, respectively. Federal Bank is schedule to detail its quarterly results on Friday. Earnings growth for private banks, particularly HDFC Bank and Axis Bank, will moderate to 25% YoY and 11% YoY, respectively. Fee income growth is expected to be muted and with a lag in asset growth. Stocks of public sector banks would be in focus, as most banks would take a decision on distribution of dividend next week. Mid-size public sector banks including Dena Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Allahabad Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, IDBI Bank and UCO Bank will take a decision on dividend payment to shareholders next week. Bank of Baroda would be among the large state-owned banks to declare interim dividend on Wednesday. Most banks would declare their dividend in the first two days of the week and post that, traders will take bets on the basis of the dividend announced by these banks. Expectations that the December inflation number may be lower month-on-month may see some positive movement in bank stocks. India’s annual inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) is seen falling to 10.0% in December due to lower food prices. The CPI inflation rate had hit a lifetime high of 11.24% in November due to high food inflation. The Central Statistics Office will detail the CPI (Combined) inflation rate for December at 1730 IST on Monday, while the commerce ministry will detail the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation for December on Tuesday. If the inflation comes down, we may see an up tick in bank stocks as the chances of RBI’s monetary tightening would reduce. However other factors like earnings and dividend announcement would also decide the future course of action. In the previous policy review, the Reserve Bank of India maintained status quo on rates, but warned that it will act on off-policy dates. If the expected softening of food inflation does not materialise and translate into a significant reduction in headline inflation in the next round of data releases, or if inflation excluding food and fuel does not fall, the Reserve Bank will act, including on off-policy dates if warranted. The RBI is scheduled to detail its third quarter monetary policy review on Jan 28. Increasing concerns over non-performing assets could weigh on PSU banks’ net profits going ahead, and impact shares of these banks. The RBI also said in its Financial Stability Report that if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further, the gross non-performing asset ratio of banks could rise to up to 7% by March 2015. We estimate PAT for PSU banks will be weak (8% to -7%) on a YoY basis, except for Union Bank of India, which has exceptionally weak comparatives. The index yesterday ended at 10805.30, down 165.15 points or 1.51% from Thursday and down 3.37% from the previous week.  |
| Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:09 AM PST Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of major cement manufacturers are expected to trade in the red next week as, with companies set to detail their Oct-Dec earnings, we see another weak quarter on the back of slow pick-up in demand and low volume off-take. Though Oct-Dec was slightly better than the Jul-Sep quarter, on a year-on-year basis, both, reported revenue and profit numbers would be lower. The mood around cement sector stocks will definitely be grim. There has not been much pick-up in demand for cement despite good monsoons. Also, companies have been trying to keep prices high but have not been successful. Therefore, price realisations were low during Oct-Dec. Average all-India cement realization was down 3.5% on year in Oct-Dec and marginally up quarter-on-quarter. Average prices are likely to be up 1-3% on quarter in central, west and south regions, while average prices are expected to be down 1-2% on quarter in north and east. Industry volumes have grown only 3% on year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to 61 mln tn, implying lower utilisations at 71% against 73% year ago, due to sand mining ban in Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu, cyclones, monsoon in parts of East and South India, and continued political unrest in Andhra Pradesh. As a result, we expect average realization to be down 3.5% YoY and up only 0.5% QoQ to 3,985 rupees per tn. Average EBITDA/tn (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) is expected to decline by around 28% YoY/improve 7% QoQ to 630 rupees/tn. With lower than expected volume/pricing uptick in Q3FY14 (Oct-Dec), we cut our FY14-16E EBITDA by 6-10% for companies under our coverage and revise our target prices by rolling over on FY16E.  |
| Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:08 AM PST Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in The movement in stocks of major pharmaceutical companies is likely to be positive next week as investors are expected to bet more on defensive stocks such as pharma and fast moving consumer goods. Higher focus is likely on defensive stocks as investors would be cautious ahead of the economic data Consumer Price Index inflation for December to be released early next week. The Index of Industrial Production for November was released earlier yesterday. Stocks of major drug makers may not gain much if the pressure from a negative Nifty spills over to the sector. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd and Divi’s Laboratories Ltd are expected to outperform next week based on their recent charts. Cadila Healthcare Ltd’s stocks are likely to continue upward run and may touch 950-960- rupee levels by the end of January. Stocks of Cadila Healthcare yesterday closed at 872.05 rupees on the National Stock Exchange, up 11.69% from Jan 3 close. The stock rallied after it received the US drug regulator’s nod to sell drugs in the country. Giving a sideways-to-positive view on Lupin Ltd. It is important for it (Lupin’s stocks) to close above 950 rupees for us to have a positive view on it.  |
| FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:07 AM PST FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in We believe most fast moving consumer goods sector stocks will see muted trading in the week ahead, with focus shifting to ITC Ltd in the second half of the week as the tobaccomajor is scheduled to detail its Oct-Dec earnings on Jan 17. Many big companies like TCS, HCL and HDFC Bank are coming out with their numbers next week. Focus will move to FMCG stocks only on Friday when ITC will post its earnings. ITC is likely to report a 12% year-on-year rise in revenue for Oct-Dec to 85.20 bln rupees, and net profit growth of 15% on-year to 23.5 bln rupees. We expect the tobacco-major to report a 2-3% decline in sales volumes of ITC’s mainstay cigarettes business, as the company has taken price hikes of over 15% in the last two years. Also, we are expecting a lacklustre earnings season for the FMCG sector, as there has been a significant demand slowdown owing to high inflation and poor consumer sentiment. FMCG revenue growth shall remain tepid for the coming quarters, as high inflation has begun to impact consumer spending even in the staples and the trade becomes increasingly  |
| Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:06 AM PST Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of most capital goods companies are seen extending losses in the next week as weak macro economic conditions continue to weigh on the sector making it unfavourable among investors. The Index of Industrial Production for November continued its fall at (-) 2.1% as compared to (-) 1.8% in October, according to the data release by the commerce ministry after market hours yesterday. The November IIP, which continues to be in the negative territory for the second month in a row, is extremely worrisome. What is also causing concern is the performance of the manufacturing sector, indicating that new investments are still not happening. With no near-term pick up seen in the industrial expenditure, as evident from the IIP numbers, capital goods sector is unlikely to see investor interest. However, long-terminvestors may enter stocks of capital goods companies that have a robust order book and diversified exposure, taking advantage of the ongoing price correction. Usually, Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar are expected to be strong quarters for the sector, as large government orders are finalised during this time. We expect revenue growth to be broadbased in the sector, since Oct-Apr usually signals acceleration in project execution as well as order intake. We estimate the turnover of our coverage universe to rise 15% yoy, with large companies like L&T (up 20% year on year) and Thermax (up 30% year on year) leading the pack. As the Oct-Dec earnings season draws near, long to medium term investors may pick shares of companies such as Larsen & Toubro, Voltas, Havells India and KEC International. Industry major, L&T is expected to grow at 15% year on year, while VGuard Industries Ltd is likely to  |
| Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:04 AM PST Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of state-owned oil marketing companies are likely to remain subdued next week as those reporting earnings will come into focus, but rupee’s movement against the dollar and crude oil prices will continue to determine the trend. Reliance Industries is the only one in the sector that will report Oct-Dec earnings next week, but its numbers will be announced only post market hours Friday. The refining behemoth is expected to report 3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit for the quarter ended December at 53.21 bln rupees while its turnover may grow 12% from the year-ago period to 1.05 trln rupees. The stock is broadly seen positive as we expect an uptrend in the company’s business cycle with production from the KG-D6 block expected to pick up from its lows. The government’s decision to allow the company benefits of the higher gas price effective from April will further boost earnings from the segment. A combination of downstream expansions, E&P (exploration and production) volume growth and higher gas price will drive Reliance’s US$ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) to double in three years. On the other hand, crude oil prices have softened a bit since the beginning of January while the rupee has continued to remain stable, which will provide some relief to the state-owned oil marketing companies. The stocks are seen closely tracking the commodity and Indian currency in the near term.  |
| Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 03:02 AM PST Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Movement in shares of major auto companies will be stock-specific next week ahead of Oct-Dec quarterly results and are mostly expected to be range bound, as investors are seen refraining from taking large positions. The outlook for the auto companies’ December quarter results will mostly drive the auto stocks.Companies will start declaring their financial results for the Oct-Dec from next week. It is going to be a mixed bag. It is somewhat stock specific for next week. Bajaj Auto Ltd is likely to announce its December quarter results on Thursday. The stock is likely to be range bound with a negative bias, highlighting that Bajaj Auto is likely to post 3-4% onyear growth in bottomline which is not very impressive if compared with Hero MotoCorp Ltd, which is expected to post a 20% growth. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the company will see a decline in its margins because of volumes. The high-margin three-wheelers segment of Bajaj saw reduction in volumes during the quarter. Hero MotoCorp is likely to post numbers better than its peers. Tata Motors Ltd’s subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover is expected to declare global sales numbers for December on Wednesday. The scrip of the company is seen trading with a positive bias in anticipation of high sales number. JLR has been the driving factor in Tata Motors’ sales and earnings, on the back of which it has been performing decently. JLR (December numbers) should be good on the back of its Range Rover Sport variant. I am expecting around 38,000-39,000 vehicles sold globally. CRISIL yesterday raised Tata Motors’ long-term bank facility rating to AA/stable, which might factor-in on Monday and the stock is likely to be positive on the news.  |
| Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014 Posted: 11 Jan 2014 02:39 AM PST Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 13.01.2014 – 17.01.2014www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of major cement manufacturers are expected to trade in the red next week as, with companies set to detail their Oct-Dec earnings, we see another weak quarter on the back of slow pick-up in demand and low volume off-take. Though Oct-Dec was slightly better than the Jul-Sep quarter, on a year-on-year basis, both, reported revenue and profit numbers would be lower. The mood around cement sector stocks will definitely be grim. There has not been much pick-up in demand for cement despite good monsoons. Also, companies have been trying to keep prices high but have not been successful. Therefore, price realisations were low during Oct-Dec. Average all-India cement realization was down 3.5% on year in Oct-Dec and marginally up quarter-on-quarter. Average prices are likely to be up 1-3% on quarter in central, west and south regions, while average prices are expected to be down 1-2% on quarter in north and east. Industry volumes have grown only 3% on year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to 61 mln tn, implying lower utilisations at 71% against 73% year ago, due to sand mining ban in Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu, cyclones, monsoon in parts of East and South India, and continued political unrest in Andhra Pradesh. As a result, we expect average realization to be down 3.5% YoY and up only 0.5% QoQ to 3,985 rupees per tn. Average EBITDA/tn (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) is expected to decline by around 28% YoY/improve 7% QoQ to 630 rupees/tn. With lower than expected volume/pricing uptick in Q3FY14 (Oct-Dec), we cut our FY14-16E EBITDA by 6-10% for companies under our coverage and revise our target prices by rolling over on FY16E.  |
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