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• RUPEEDESK: Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03. 01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
• RUPEEDESK: FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014
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RUPEEDESK: Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:49 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in The bias for local share indices is seen positive next week after the National Stock Exchange’s 50-share Nifty ended at a two-week high yesterday. Trading volume may be thin and action relatively stock-specific due to low investor participation because of year-end holidays. Overseas markets will be eyed for cues early in trade. The rangebound movement in a tight range may be seen in the Nifty in the days ahead. The gradual upward movement may induce lot of buying momentum in stock specifics. The bias is positive also in the absence of any major negative news flows. Action is likely to be seen more in the mid- and small-cap spaces as mutual funds buy to perk up their net asset values at the end of the year. However, some market participants are quite optimistic and see the Nifty testing 6400 points.  We expect markets (Nifty) to continue its upward move to 6385-6400 levels in the next week. Yesterday, the Nifty ended at 6313.80, up 34.90 points or 0.6% from Thursday. Intraday, the index moved between 6289.40 and 6324.90. The S&P BSE’s 30-stock Sensex closed at 21193.58, up 118.99 points or 0.6%, after moving between 21113.25 and 21235.14. MCX Stock Exchange’s SX40 ended at 12589.02, up 55.76 points or 0.4%, after testing a low of 12528.85 and high of 12612.17. Stocks in the banking, pharmaceutical, metal, and information technology sectors are likely to trade positive next week. Automobile stocks will take cues from their monthly sales numbers that will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Stocks of UPL will remain in focus on Monday as the company’s board will mull a share buyback.

RUPEEDESK: Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:48 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of major automakers are likely move along the expected sales number for respective companies till such announcements are made. Thereafter, the actual despatch figures and the broad market would guide the stocks. It is end of the month and auto sales numbers will come out on Wednesday which will be the key focus point. The broader market is another driver for the auto stocks. Many automakers have announced price hikes for their products, and new launches in the upcoming year. Both Tata Motors Ltd, the largest Indian automobile manufacturer in terms of turnover, and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, the largest in terms of sales numbers, will hike prices of passenger vehicles from January, owing to rising input costs.  This could account for some positive movement for the stocks next week. Another reason why the Maruti Suzuki scrip could trade positively, could be inferred from Chief Operating Officer – Marketing & Sales, Mayank Pareek’s statement. The company will report its highest ever retail sales for a month in December on greater discounts and promotional offers on its vehicles. Maruti Suzuki is offering an average discount of 17,000 rupees on its vehicles, according to Pareek. Maruti Suzuki plans to launch a new hatchback in Feb-Mar. Launching a product is always good. If the company confirms the news then the stocks might trade with a positive bias.  The scrip of Hero MotoCorp Ltd is likely to be positive for the next few weeks as the company is all set to launch a slew of motorcycles and also variants of the existing models January onwards. Bajaj Auto Ltd’s scrip is among the top picks for the coming week because of strong rural demand for two-wheelers and also on expectations to deliver stable earnings for the ongoing quarter. Tata Motors’ sales are expected to be along its performance in the past few quarters–poor in the domestic market, good in the in the international market on the back of its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover. Therefore, it is likely to remain positive in the coming week, as sales from JLR’s stable provide high margins to the company.  However, the auto sector in entirety is not expected to deliver good sales figures for December. This comes despite auto companies offering huge discounts to its consumers during the month. The industry has witnessed slowdown in the past seven-eight months and continues to do so. Overall consumer sentiment has been low and demand has fallen over the months. The only respite to the sector has been the rural segment, which has seen good monsoon this year. On the murky sales outlook, most of the auto stocks are likely to trade with a partial negative bias next week.

RUPEEDESK: Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03. 01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:47 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Trend for major telecom stocks is seen positive next week as they are seen making pullback after corrections in the past few sessions. Telecom stocks will also eye the likely meeting of the Telecom Commission, which is expected to take up the issue of spectrum usage charges Tuesday. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India had recommended that the spectrum usage charge, which is currently in the range of 2-8%, should be kept at 3% of the companies’ adjusted gross revenue per year. The Department of Telecommunications is currently deliberating the issue with the finance ministry.  Most of the telecom companies, including Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular, have demanded that the charge be levied at flat 3%. Any change in the existing slab rate based charges to a flat one is expected to lead to big financial ramifications for the government resulting in possible decline in revenues, while it is seen positive for telecom companies.

RUPEEDESK: Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:45 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of major pharmaceutical companies are likely to continue their upward rally in the coming week given the lack of any negative triggers. Most stocks in the pharmaceutical sector gained on this week’s trading session. Scrips of Divi’s Laboratories Ltd, Biocon Ltd, Cipla Ltd and Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd closed up 3.8%, 2.1%, 1.8% and 1.6% respectively from their previous closes. The S&P BSE Healthcare Index yesterday closed at 10000.55 points crossing the 10,000 mark for the first time. Buying Cipla’s stocks while maintaining a neutral stand on other major stocks such as Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd and Lupin Ltd.  Midcap stocks have rallied upwards and some stocks, which had not participated in the earlier rally of large-cap stocks, will continue to press. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks in pharma are having a good run and they will pursue their run. We expects the pharmaceutical sector to trade from flat to positive in the coming week. We sees the stocks of Divi’s Laboratories outperforming other stocks next week, while expecting stocks of Sun Pharma to underperform as they’re seen trading flat.

RUPEEDESK: Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:43 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of cement companies are expected to follow the broader market in the absence of any sector-specific trigger, and the bias will be positive as the worst seems to be over in terms of demand. The bias for local share indices is seen positive next week after the National Stock Exchange’s 50-share Nifty ended at a two-week high yesterday. Though cement consumption has improved especially in rural areas, it is still at a slower pace than expected. While infrastructure investments have clearly slowed down, thereby driving down cement consumption in India, pickup in rural/tier-2 cities’ demand can bolster cement demand during FY15-16E (Apr-Mar) on account of the good agricultural output expected in FY14E.  Investors to focus on companies with improving operational efficiencies and strong balance sheet that should help absorb the negative impacts of any demand disappointments going forward. ACC & Ambuja Cements in the large cap space on account of their continued loss in market share as well as deterioration in their operational efficiencies. UltraTech, Shree Cement and JK Lakshmi Cements which have been industry leaders on the operational fronts. In our view, any dip in stock prices should be used. Explaining that while Ramco has been one of the most efficient cement companies in the southern regions. we would wait for its balance sheet to repair and demand pick-up in the southern region before we would upgrade it.

RUPEEDESK: Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:41 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of state-owned oil marketing companies are likely to be rangebound next week and will mostly track the dollar/rupee movement while stocks of upstream major Oil and Natural Gas Corp may remain under pressure due to shutdown of its operations in South Sudan. The Indian currency may come under pressure early in the week due to the usual month-end dollar demand from importers but broadly it is expected to trade around 62 rupees per dollar level through the week. On the other hand, international crude oil prices are expected to soften in 2014 as the demand scenario looks weak in the major economies. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude oil price to decline gradually to $104 per barrel in 2014 from around $112 now.  In the shorter term, crude oil prices may remain stable. The state-owned oil marketing companies are still losing significantly on subsidised fuels, with the revenue loss on diesel at an astounding 10.5 rupees a litre despite sustained price hikes during the year. With the general elections around the corner, the market suspects whether the monthly price hike of 50 paise a litre in diesel will continue. The next hike is due on Dec 31, and an announcement in this regard will be keenly awaited. If oil companies continue to hike diesel price, it will give some positive momentum to stocks of Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.  A hike will also help stocks of ONGC and Oil India. ONGC’s overseas arm ONGC Videsh was forced to suspend operations in its oilfields in South Sudan last week as the local unrest intensified. ONGC Videsh operates two producing assets in South Sudan through its joint operating companies, Greater Pioneer Operating Co and SUDD Petroleum Operating Co, with participating interest of 25% and 24.125%, respectively. Greater Pioneer Operating Co was producing around 37,000 bbl per day in which ONGC Videsh’s share is 9,250 bpd from Block 1,2,4. SUDD Petroleum Operating Co produces around 4,600 bpd where ONGC Videsh’s share is 1,100 bpd from Block 5A. A prolonged shutdown will mean loss of revenue and the stock may come under pressure.

RUPEEDESK: Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:40 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Stocks of capital goods companies are largely seen up next week as investors may pick up stocks of companies such as Larsen & Toubro and Crompton Greaves because they expect these companies to gain from their exposure to international market in the short term. Crompton Greaves has a strong overseas operation, which is likely to offset the weak domestic performance in the near to medium term. Our analysis of trends from the international peer group for Crompton Greaves suggests that the worst might be over as far as growth and pricing pressure in the power T&D (transmission and distribution) sector is concerned.  We note that this is probably the right time to look at CRG’s (Crompton Greaves) international portfolio more constructively. L&T is also placed well in its international order flow space. The company expects international orders to pick up from 149.66 bln rupees in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) to 250.00 bln rupees in 2013-14 (Apr-Mar). The company’s total order inflow at the end of the current financial year is expected to be at 990.00 bln rupees. Investors are confident of the company achieving its growth target of about 15% in revenue and 20% in order inflow for the current financial year, given its robust order backlog, healthy order inflows and strong execution capabilities.  Investors are also positive on L&T’s plans to raise funds through dilution of stake in L&T Infrastructure Development Projects and to monetise existing non-core assets such as Dharma port. We believe this would help the company fund its equity requirement. It is also best placed to benefit from a gradual recovery in the capex (capital expenditure) cycle given its diverse exposure to sectors and a strong balance sheet. Stocks of Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, which has seen significant run-up in the last one month, will move in a narrow range, as the stocks are already trading near the resistance level. Investors are of the view that the company valuations are unjustified given deterioration in operating metrics. In the second half, BHEL’s margins are will remain under pressure as execution issues with some clients persist. Stocks of the company have rallied in the recent past after new power projects were announced by the government, making it mandatory for the plant developers to source domestic equipments. However, the scope for the company to benefit from it anytime soon is unlikely. The domestic market has still not recovered, which will keep its order flow level low.

RUPEEDESK: Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:39 AM PST www.rupeedesk.in Bank stocks are likely to trade with a positive bias in line with the broad market next week, but low investor participation due to year-end holiday is likely to keep volumes thin. Activity is seen stock specific with mid-sized banks being preferred. This is mainly because of buying by mutual fund houses to propel their net asset values as the year draws to a close. Most funds will buy mid-cap PSUs (public sector banks) to perk-up their NAV (net asset value). Preference would be to buy cheaper stocks as compared to index heavy weights. Allahabad Bank, Canara Bank, ING Vysya Bank, Union Bank of India, Karnataka Bank, Bank of India and South Indian Bank among others may see buying.  Axis Bank stocks are seen trading with a positive bias on Monday as the Reserve Bank of India, after market hours yesterday, removed curbs placed on the purchase of the bank’s stocks by foreign investors. Expectation that the December inflation number reading may be lower month-on-month may also bode well for bank stocks. If this turns true, then it may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to maintain status quo on interest rates. In the previous policy review, the RBI maintained status quo but had warned that it will act on off-policy dates. If the expected softening of food inflation does not materialise and translate into a significant reduction in headline inflation in the next round of data releases, or if inflation excluding food and fuel does not fall, the Reserve Bank will act, including on off-policy dates if warranted. The central bank is scheduled to detail its third quarter monetary policy review on Jan 28. We believe 11000-11200 would remain important support for the banking index in the coming week.

RUPEEDESK: FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 Posted: 28 Dec 2013 03:37 AM PST FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 30.12.2013 – 03.01.2014 www.rupeedesk.in We believe that stocks of companies Like Hindustan Unilever Ltd and Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd are likely to outperform over the next few weeks on value buying. HUL and Colgate have fallen from their all time highs. Both these stocks are likely to outperform as investors look for value stocks. Colgate will particularly do well considering it has maintained its market-leading position despite high competitive intensity. The oral care segment remains resilient with reasonable volume growth and some up-trading; advertising intensity in this segment is on the high side, though.  Stocks of India’s largest fast moving consumer goods company, Hindustan Unilever have fallen 21.6% from all-time high of 725 rupees on Jul 22. Many large investors with a one-year perspective have started adding Hindustan Unilever to their portfolio. We believe the FMCG behemoth, which has a strong rural distribution network, will outperform the sector over the next two quarters, as spending in those areas is expected to increase with the forthcoming general elections. We believes that, currently, the entire FMCG sector is going though a dull phase, and expects most stocks to trade in a narrow range in the week ahead.

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